State of the Union speeches are all about aspirations. It doesn’t matter if you’re Reagan. Clinton, Obama, the Bush tandem or Trump. Aspirations are the quintessence of State of the Union speeches. What presidents aspire to do. And what a president wants Congress to do.
All of this flows toward the ultimate of political aspirations: winning elections. Be it the next presidential election. Or, House and Senate seats during the midterms.
There were two big asks — and one admonition — from President Donald Trump this week. He wants Congress to approve the SAVE Act, requiring proof of citizenship for people to vote. He wants lawmakers to pass a stock trading ban, handcuffing Congress from dealing in stocks. And the President doesn’t want Congress to meddle in tariff policy.
President Trump touted his new tariffs, arguing that they will eventually replace the nation’s income tax. This commander in chief has wielded executive power more broadly than any other president. So he instructed lawmakers to trade in their tariff authority.
“Congressional action will not be necessary,” Trump said of his new tariffs.
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The Constitution blesses Congress with the power to impose tariffs. The Supreme Court upheld that power last week. But President Trump went ahead and slapped another set of tariffs on all nations, leaning on a different law.
Like most presidents, Trump wants to control legislation. That includes precluding Congress from tampering with his tariffs. However, a number of Republicans have their own aspirations: getting re-elected. That’s why some House Republicans, who believe their districts are getting hammered by tariffs, would like to reclaim that power. Or, at the very least, be on the record opposing the president.
The House voted a few weeks ago to extinguish a special rule House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and others put in place to block members from unwinding the tariffs for a year. Then the House adopted a plan to undo tariffs with Canada.
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But again, these are aspirations of some Republicans fed up with tariffs. The bulk of Republicans are okay with keeping them in place. And that’s exactly what Trump wants – regardless of what the Supreme Court decided.
Let’s go back to Trump’s two major legislative asks in his speech. The SAVE Act is the one he really wants to be passed. This fits nicely with Trump’s narrative about illegal immigration, his claim that former President Joe Biden stole the 2020 election and voter fraud.
“They want to cheat. They have cheated. And their policy is so bad that the only way they can get elected is to cheat,” said the President of Democrats during his speech. “Cheating is rampant.”
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A study examining election fraud by the conservative Heritage Foundation, discovered that examples of election fraud are minuscule. For instance, Pennsylvania, a swing state, has only unearthed 39 instances of voting fraud over the past three decades.
The House already approved the SAVE Act. But the question is the Senate.
“The Senate is working. I think every Republican over there is obviously in favor of the SAVE America Act, and they’re trying to cobble together the votes. It’s a 70% Democrat issue. It’s over 90% in some polls,” said Johnson. “Hopefully, some Democrats will come to their senses. I don’t know how they can go home to their voters and say that they were opposing that when it’s such a popular issue. So we’ll see how it goes.”
See how it goes is right.
It was notable that in his plea for Congressional action on the SAVE Act, Trump did not demand that senators end the filibuster. Fifty GOP senators now support the SAVE Act. But the trick is whether those who endorse the legislation can hit the magic threshold of 60 yeas. That’s the number of votes required to break a filibuster.
Senate Majority leader John Thune, R-S.D., has repeatedly resisted altering the Senate’s filibuster customs and precedents to pass the SAVE Act. The bill will never become law unless the Senate changes things. And Thune reiterated his opposition to undoing the filibuster.
Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and others have advocated a “talking filibuster.” That means senators must actually speak and hold the floor for hours on end. Otherwise, the Senate must vote. Talking filibuster proponents don’t want senators to silently object from the sidelines. That’s what compels the Senate to take procedural votes needing 60 yeas to overcome a filibuster.
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“The talking filibuster issue is one on which there is not a unified Republican conference. And there would have to be (unity) if you go down that path,” said Thune.
He mentioned that the GOP must “keep 50 Republicans unified pretty much on every single vote,” adding that “there isn’t the support for doing that at this point.”
Fox News is also told that there is some friction between House and Senate Republicans. Some Senate Republicans don’t appreciate the House amping up pressure to ditch the filibuster. The right to filibuster is a privilege to which senators of both parties cling tightly.
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Moreover, subjecting the Senate to lengthy debate could tee up amendment votes which many vulnerable senators may find unsettling. Getting them on the record on a host of controversial issues wouldn’t help the GOP ahead of the election.
So, while it’s Trump’s aspiration to pass the SAVE Act, his aspirations regarding the filibuster are unclear at best.
Then, there’s the aspiration about prohibiting lawmakers from trading stocks. Even Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., stood and applauded when Trump made that entreaty.
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Johnson said that the House is trying to “move (the bill) as aggressively and as quickly as we can.” But says he’s got to have “the votes for it.”
That’s the reason the House hasn’t addressed the bill yet. It lacks the votes. For now, that is an aspiration. If the bill has the votes, Johnson will deposit the legislation on the floor.
There’s an old expression that the president “proposes” and Congress “disposes.” It’s certainly possible that even a GOP Congress will do that this year with some of Trump’s legislative wishes.
But that doesn’t handicap presidential aspirations. After all, even presidents can dream.