How do scientists predict the weather?
Weather forecasts are sometimes accurate and sometimes way off. How do meteorologists actually predict the weather? What data do they use? Why is it so hard to predict more than a few days out? Has weather forecasting gotten better over time, or is it still mostly guessing?
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I'm a physics grad student and this is one of my favorite questions to explain. The key insight is that our everyday intuition doesn't always apply at extreme scales — very small (quantum), very large (cosmological), or very fast (relativistic).
7 Answers
I'm a physics grad student and this is one of my favorite questions to explain. The key insight is that our everyday intuition doesn't always apply at extreme scales — very small (quantum), very large (cosmological), or very fast (relativistic).
Scientists love this kind of question because it's how real discoveries start. 'That's funny...' is supposedly how a lot of breakthroughs begin. Keep that curiosity — it's worth more than memorizing facts for a test.
I teach high school science and I get this question every year. The textbook explanation is a simplification — a useful one, but a simplification. The real answer involves stuff you'd cover in a college course, but I can give you the gist.
Carl Sagan's 'Cosmos' explains stuff like this better than any textbook. If you can find the old TV series or the book, watch or read it. He had a gift for making the universe make sense without dumbing it down. Highly recommend.
I'd recommend the book 'A Brief History of Time' by Stephen Hawking, or for the math side, 'The Joy of x.' Your library has them. They're written for curious regular people. You don't need a degree to understand the big ideas.
The math looks scary but it's mostly just a precise way of saying something you can understand in plain English. Once you get the concept, the equations are just bookkeeping. Focus on the idea first, the symbols second.
This is actually a much deeper question than it appears on the surface. The simple answer most textbooks give is technically correct but misses a lot of nuance. Let me try to explain it in a way that captures the full picture.
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